Probability of default model
300 → 10
candidate variables cut to the final model
A logistic-regression model of credit card default. Vintage curves set a 6‑month performance window; roll-rate analysis tracked accounts within it.
- Narrowed the candidate variables with break-and-heal binning, weight of evidence and information value, stepwise regression and cluster analysis.
- Set warning and breach thresholds for ongoing monitoring.
- KS Separation
- 55%
- PSI Stability
- 0.13
- MAPE Forecast error
- 10%

